Poker Math- Calling on a Draw
Many times when you're playing poker you find yourself in a position where you know that you can't be winning the hand, but have a chance if the right card comes. Sometimes calling is the right move, sometimes it's not. Here's an example of a hand I played recently:
One of the games I frequent is a $2/$5 no-limit hold'em game with lots of loose action and zero rake. Maximum buy-in is $500 and several players had rebought a few times. With 8 people at the table the average stack was about $750. In this game I try to see a lot of cheap flops with position and play "hit-to-win" poker. I try to win large pots when I hit and run away cheaply when I don't.
I am in the big blind with 6-8 suited (spades), under the gun raises to $10 and gets 4 callers, including the small blind. There is $45 in the pot (4 callers, plus my big blind) so I add my $5 making the pot $50.
The flop comes 2S, 7S, 9H. I've got nothing but I do have an outside straight draw for the nuts and a draw to a medium flush.
The small blind and I check and the original preflop bettor bets $10 into the $50 pot. He gets 4 callers bringing the pot to $90 and I add my $10 to make it an even $100. At this point I have nothing, but 6 cards (non-spade 5 or 10) give me the nuts and 9 cards (any remaining spade) give me a flush. Since I know what 5 cards are (2 in my hand, 3 on the board) there are 47 left to choose from. I hit the nuts 13% of the time and a flush 19% of the time. I figure either of these hands will likely win so about a third of the time I'm good.
The turn comes King of Diamonds. The original bettors eyes light up and I think he has AK or KK. I still have nothing but a draw. The small blind and I check. The preflop bettor decides to slow play and checks, the other two players check. I've gotten a free ride to the river.
The river is a beautiful 5 of hearts giving me the nut straight. The small blind and I check and the preflop bettor throws in $20. He gets one caller and it comes to me with $140 in the pot. I know the preflop bettor has a good hand and will call so I make raise to $160. The preflop raiser smuggly declares "all-in" and adds a little over $500. The other player folds and I call.
My straight beats his set of kings and he tells me how much of an idiot I am for calling his $10 bet on the flop, calls me a donkey and a chaser and spends 10 minutes berating me and whining. I announce that I "felt" I'd get lucky to add to my donkey persona. The extra $760 in front of me helps soothe my hurt feelings.
Now, let's look at my play and decide who the idiot was.
Preflop it cost me $5 to join a $45 pot. Getting 9 to one odds I'd play with nearly any two cards. With suited straight cards I'd probably play even if I knew the other player had aces. It's a very small bet for a potentially big prize.
On the flop 6 of 47 cards gave me the nuts (13%), and 9 cards give me a flush (19%). I know the straight gives me a win and the flush likely gives me a win. 15 of 47 cards are good for me. I'm going to win this pot about half the time if I go to the river, unless someone has a bigger flush draw. I have to play the flush conservatively, but I feel pretty good. when play comes to me I have to pay $10 for a shot at $90. 9 to 1 is a very good payout here.
On the turn there are still 6 of 46 cards that give me the nuts. A little more than 1 out of 8 times I'm a lock. There are 9 cards that give me a flush, but two of those give the preflop bettor a boat or quads. So 7 of 46 give me a better hand than the bettor. Again, a little more than 1 of 8 puts me ahead, I just have to be careful of bigger flushes. I figure I will win 13 or 46 times, or about 3.54 to 1. As long as the pot is 3 1/2 times bigger than the bet I should call. A bet of $50 would give me 3 to 1, causing me to fold, but he bets zero slow playing his set giving me a free look.
The river was fun. All the bettor was looking for was a flush. It didn't hit and ha makes a bet the he figured would get callers giving him a nice pot. When I raised he didn't even think about the possiblity of a straight because there is no way I would have called his bet with a 6-8. My check-raise should have made some bells go off, but there was no way his ego would let him fold a set, or even smooth call. He had to push. Really made me look dumb, didn't he?
One of the games I frequent is a $2/$5 no-limit hold'em game with lots of loose action and zero rake. Maximum buy-in is $500 and several players had rebought a few times. With 8 people at the table the average stack was about $750. In this game I try to see a lot of cheap flops with position and play "hit-to-win" poker. I try to win large pots when I hit and run away cheaply when I don't.
I am in the big blind with 6-8 suited (spades), under the gun raises to $10 and gets 4 callers, including the small blind. There is $45 in the pot (4 callers, plus my big blind) so I add my $5 making the pot $50.
The flop comes 2S, 7S, 9H. I've got nothing but I do have an outside straight draw for the nuts and a draw to a medium flush.
The small blind and I check and the original preflop bettor bets $10 into the $50 pot. He gets 4 callers bringing the pot to $90 and I add my $10 to make it an even $100. At this point I have nothing, but 6 cards (non-spade 5 or 10) give me the nuts and 9 cards (any remaining spade) give me a flush. Since I know what 5 cards are (2 in my hand, 3 on the board) there are 47 left to choose from. I hit the nuts 13% of the time and a flush 19% of the time. I figure either of these hands will likely win so about a third of the time I'm good.
The turn comes King of Diamonds. The original bettors eyes light up and I think he has AK or KK. I still have nothing but a draw. The small blind and I check. The preflop bettor decides to slow play and checks, the other two players check. I've gotten a free ride to the river.
The river is a beautiful 5 of hearts giving me the nut straight. The small blind and I check and the preflop bettor throws in $20. He gets one caller and it comes to me with $140 in the pot. I know the preflop bettor has a good hand and will call so I make raise to $160. The preflop raiser smuggly declares "all-in" and adds a little over $500. The other player folds and I call.
My straight beats his set of kings and he tells me how much of an idiot I am for calling his $10 bet on the flop, calls me a donkey and a chaser and spends 10 minutes berating me and whining. I announce that I "felt" I'd get lucky to add to my donkey persona. The extra $760 in front of me helps soothe my hurt feelings.
Now, let's look at my play and decide who the idiot was.
Preflop it cost me $5 to join a $45 pot. Getting 9 to one odds I'd play with nearly any two cards. With suited straight cards I'd probably play even if I knew the other player had aces. It's a very small bet for a potentially big prize.
On the flop 6 of 47 cards gave me the nuts (13%), and 9 cards give me a flush (19%). I know the straight gives me a win and the flush likely gives me a win. 15 of 47 cards are good for me. I'm going to win this pot about half the time if I go to the river, unless someone has a bigger flush draw. I have to play the flush conservatively, but I feel pretty good. when play comes to me I have to pay $10 for a shot at $90. 9 to 1 is a very good payout here.
On the turn there are still 6 of 46 cards that give me the nuts. A little more than 1 out of 8 times I'm a lock. There are 9 cards that give me a flush, but two of those give the preflop bettor a boat or quads. So 7 of 46 give me a better hand than the bettor. Again, a little more than 1 of 8 puts me ahead, I just have to be careful of bigger flushes. I figure I will win 13 or 46 times, or about 3.54 to 1. As long as the pot is 3 1/2 times bigger than the bet I should call. A bet of $50 would give me 3 to 1, causing me to fold, but he bets zero slow playing his set giving me a free look.
The river was fun. All the bettor was looking for was a flush. It didn't hit and ha makes a bet the he figured would get callers giving him a nice pot. When I raised he didn't even think about the possiblity of a straight because there is no way I would have called his bet with a 6-8. My check-raise should have made some bells go off, but there was no way his ego would let him fold a set, or even smooth call. He had to push. Really made me look dumb, didn't he?
Labels: east poker math, easy poker math, math of poker, mathematics of poker, poker, poker math, poker mathematics, texas hold 'em, Texas hold'em
posted by Mister Refi at
6:26 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
Your comments and questions are always appreciated at Easy Poker Math.
Links to this post:
Create a Link
<< Home